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We are witnessing end of Mugabe's reign
By Tafadzwa
Musekiwa
THERE is already talk that Zimbabweans are preparing for Robert Mugabe
to stay. The reality is very different from what political analysts
want us to believe.
Let’s put this into perspective. Initially, we were told before the elections that Morgan Tsvangirai stood no chance in hell of winning these elections, because of the Simba Makoni and Arthur Mutambara alliance which would split the opposition vote, in the process giving Mugabe an absolute majority.
That turned out to be the opposite, Tsvangirai won resoundingly and the other MDC faction and Makoni only managed to minimally influence the vote.
We were also told that the delimitation of boundaries for the constituencies had favoured Zanu PF, and Zanu PF would get a majority in parliament, yet the reverse was also true. In fact, for the first time Zanu PF are in the minority in parliament since 1980.
I have tended to take some of these analysts’ views with a pinch of salt. Whilst they are occasionally accurate, most of the times they are not only inaccurate, but tend to paint a gloomy picture about the political reality on the ground.
Today, there are
a lot of theories being thrown around about how the situation will unfold
in Zimbabwe. The reality of the matter is that Mugabe – not necessarily
Zanu PF -- is going down, but that doesn’t mean without a fight.
What analysts are failing to tell us is that at the end of the fight,
he will go down, which is what Zimbabweans are waiting to see happen
in the very near future.
A seriously significant political development has taken place in post-independence
Zimbabwe after this election, i.e., Zanu PF has lost a parliamentary
majority and yet we are not being told the implications of this.
There is still disillusionment and hopelessness among fellow countrymen at the mere fact that Mugabe is still the President of Zimbabwe as we speak. It goes without saying Mugabe’s departure was not going to be easy, and it’s proving already that it’s obviously not the end, it’s certainly not the beginning, but in fact, it’s just in the middle of the struggle.
In the absence of
an expert view regarding the implications of Zanu PF’s defeat
in parliament, I will try and explain it in simpler terms, assuming
though hook or crook, Mugabe remains president, which is unlikely anyway.
I will just briefly explain why it’s very unlikely that Mugabe
will retain power as things stand. This will help in explaining why
we need not be disillusioned.
For any government under a parliamentary democracy like Zimbabwe to
function, no President, unless in a state of emergency which has to
be justifiable, can effectively run the country without a majority in
parliament.
If, for argument sake, he has a minority, that majority has to support him otherwise it’s just impossible to run the country. I know some of you are beginning to think about Bingu Wamtarika in Malawi and Musharaff in Pakistan. Hold your horses. These presidents are not anywhere close to the situation as we have in Zimbabwe.
Bingu is effectively ruling by decree, but he can afford it, at least in the short term. As for Musharaff, well everyone knows that he is America’s pawn and can effectively do it without a problem, but even he might not be in office for long regardless.
The question is: can Zimbabwe afford it? Or rather can Mugabe afford it? The answer is a big NO, not at the moment. For everyone to understand, let’s put it simply and take one instance.
With inflation pegged at over 100 00%, the likelihood that parliament will need to approve e.g. salaries for civil servants through a supplementary budget almost every month is real. Government or ministries can’t just go to the Reserve Bank to print money for their salaries. It will be possible but very illegal and unconstitutional.
No-one can argue that Mugabe has ever done this, because he hasn’t, much as we know him as a despot who has no respect for the rule of law, he has followed the law and procedure in this regard. Parliament has always been there and wiling to approve yearly and supplementary budgets without a problem. Will Mugabe do it knowing that parliament won’t approve it? The answer is, very unlikely, why not? It effectively means if the problem persists, he will have to declare a state of emergency, something Mugabe doesn’t want to do and won’t do as long as he insists on being the legitimate ‘democratic’ leader.
I am aware that
he is effectively running the country under emergency rule, but that
is different from actually declaring it. I have just given one simple
example to illustrate where the struggle is so far. The real significance
of his party’s defeat in parliament is a major development that
has devastating implications to Zanu PF and Mugabe, no wonder they a
running around looking for 22 seats to contest under the assumption
that they will regain them and retain a majority in parliament.
To my fellow countrymen, let’s take pride in the fact that so
far, half the job is done and the MDC is doing the finishing touches
on the other half, i.e. getting rid of Mugabe. Everyone is aware of
Mugabe’s pre-election warnings that “Tsvangirai will never
rule Zimbabwe, not in my lifetime”, “your votes are a waste
if you vote the MDC” and so on. The fact of the matter, as opposed
to political rhetoric, is that it is very possible and it is going to
happen as long as the people of Zimbabwe have a final say on who they
want to be their legitimate leader.
In the parliamentary elections, let’s not forget that 54% of the electorate voted against Zanu PF. This is evidence enough to show that Mugabe has lost support of the majority of Zimbabwe’s electorate and will never rule Zimbabwe again as long as the people have a voice.
If and when Zimbabwe goes for a run off or a rerun, the likelihood that the 54% that voted against Zanu PF will do it again is self-evident. With the voter turnout in the urban areas around 45% in the March 29 parliamentary elections, this time round be rest assured that it will be around 75% if not more, thus giving a resounding win to Tsvangirai.
There is no other explanation that can convince any sober person that Mugabe will win the run off or a rerun. Like I said before, as long as the people have a final say, Tsvangirai will be President of Zimbabwe and Mugabe will never again rule Zimbabwe in my lifetime.
Change is inevitable,
but the man won’t go down without a fight, yet the most important
thing is that he will go down after that fight. The focus on the opposition
front should be the minimisation of casualties in this battle as the
man goes down, and avoid being distracted by sideshows like getting
caught up defending ourselves from baseless allegations.
Tafadzwa Musekiwa is a former MDC MP currently exiled in England.
He can be contacted on e-mail: tafadzwa_Musekiwa@yahoo.co.uk
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