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MDC government inevitable in Zimbabwe
By Crisford Chogugudza
THE writing is already on the wall; an MDC government is increasingly becoming an unavoidable reality in Zimbabwe.
However, l must warn that to achieve the above seeming reality, sacrifices have to be made. The same sacrifices made in the second Chimurenga war in which President Mugabe, among other gallant fighters was a hero.
Fighting for freedom has never been easy, as those against it will always guard their interests with the greatest tenacity and determination they can offer. It does not need the bishop’s brains to note that defying a determined dictatorship will not be an easy or cost-free endeavour. It is common knowledge that all forms of struggle have complications and costs; and the same can be said of Mahatma Ghandi and Nelson Mandela’s struggles.
Fighting dictators will, of course, bring casualties and all forms of collateral damage. It is my hope, however, that this analysis will persuade democratic leaders and their foot soldiers to consider strategies that may increase their effective power while reducing the relative level of casualties.
It is not a secret that many Zimbabweans have suffered and died in the hands of brutal militias, overzealous and extremist ruling party zealots in what analysts have rightly or wrongly called a ‘state-sponsored’ wave of violence against the MDC party activists. The reality of the situation is that those who have died in the political violence are heroes in the struggle for freedom and will always be remembered on freedom day.
I have found the following to be reasons why an MDC government is unstoppable:
Economic Collapse: the current state of the country’s economy is such that no one in their right frame of mind will ever invest their confidence in a Zanu PF government. This is irrespective of the genuineness of some of Mugabe’s explanations or excuses as to why the economy is worse than any in the world other outside war zones. The argument about the British reneging on their land reform commitments whilst, it has some weight the reality of life on the seized farms and the resulted hunger in the country tells another story.
The current state of economic stagnation in business activity in Zimbabwe will continue until there is a new political dispensation in the country. With no hope of new bilateral financing arrangements and balance of payments support, the situation will only become bleaker in the coming months. There is also an element of sabotage by those whose businesses have been destroyed by a combination of bankrupt Zanu PF economic policies and the effects of so called smart sanctions on Zimbabwe.
Poverty: The ever deteriorating standards of living in Zimbabwe have provided the much needed ammunition to propel the opposition MDC into government. This process may not happen now but certainly in the next few months or two years maximum. Whatever Zanu PF tries to do now, it is living on borrowed time and should start preparing for opposition politics.
The reality of nationalist parties such as UNIP, KANU, MCP and others is that once they are defeated, they will never rise again and the nearest they can ever get to power is in the form of a shadow cabinet. Hopefully, the Zanu PF party possibly under new leadership would be a loyal and responsible opposition party for the good of democracy. Poverty will force the people of Zimbabwe to chose between Zanu PF for despair and MDC for hope and a chance to survive in a democratic society.
Violence: the brutality and wanton destruction of property being perpetrated by Zanu PF militias and rogue elements in the war veterans movement has made the people of Zimbabwe resilient and more determined to defy any attempts by the ruling Zanu PF party to impose its mandate on the people. This kind of situation benefits the opposition MDC party in spite of whether the party leader has charisma or not.
As of now, people are more
concerned about removing Zanu PF from power than they are concerned
about the quality of opposition leadership’s quality – an
unnecessary luxury Zimbabweans cannot afford. Therefore, the debate
about Tsvangirai’s leadership qualities is irrelevant. The people
will not vote for a party that beats up and fails to feed its people
and still claims that it is a people’s party. As for the opposition,
resorting to violence will always weaken their reputation and respect
amongst the people; an eye for an eye leaves the world blind and should
not be adopted as a strategy.
Loss of moral authority to rule: there is growing evidence and realisation
by Zimbabweans that the ‘ruling’ Zanu PF party does not
have the moral basis to extend their rule even if they ‘win’
the next run off election. Those who back Zanu PF and are true to themselves
should be reminded that protracted one party rule has the effect of
creating resistance in the minds of the ruled especially when the leadership
becomes lethargic, corrupt and irresponsible.
In Zimbabwe’s case, the people generally feel neglected, abandoned and betrayed in extreme cases. The people’s distrust of government is growing everyday and inevitably, this is good news for the opposition leader. Tsvangirai’s critics can say he is a sell-out, unintelligent and everything negative but the reality remains, the collapse of the economy is his greatest asset and the man is the only real hope the people have.
Election Run Off: It is clear that the opposition won the March 29 election, whether they won it by 50% or not is irrelevant. In mature democracies, the very fact that an incumbent loses to an underdog is a shocker that usually prompts immediate resignation. It is embarrassing for a person of President Mugabe’s stature by African standards to lose the first round of an election and insist on contesting a second round which might bring more embarrassment to him and his party if he losses it again. Some even doubt the sincerity of Zanu PF in participating in elections.
For many years in Zimbabwe as indeed in other dictatorships, elections have been used merely as rigidly-controlled plebiscites to get public endorsement for candidates already hand picked. It is true that dictators under pressure may at times agree to new elections, but then rig them to extend their contested rule. In situations where opposition candidates have been allowed to run and were actually elected, as occurred in previous years, results have been contested and the "victors" subjected to intimidation, arrest and harassment. It should be known that dictatorships are not in the business of allowing elections that could remove them from power.
The sad truth is that the June 27 run-off election is not necessary and can be avoided through a negotiated solution. The reasoning behind stopping the June 27 election being that another Zanu PF government will not have any positive impact on the lives of the people except more impoverishment. On the other hand another an MDC victory will not be accepted by Zanu PF and their backers and may result in another stalemate with the possibility of civil war in Zimbabwe. The extent of violence is Zimbabwe today is high and unprecedented and more importantly, commensurate with Zanu PF’s level of desperation and fear of losing power.
However, the impending victory against Zanu PF party and its spiritual leader should not be interpreted to mean that when the dictatorship is eventually defeated; all other problems will also disappear. The fall of one regime does not bring in a utopia. Rather, it creates opportunities for hard work and long efforts to establish a more just social, economic, and political dispensation and the eradication of other forms of injustices and oppression
Gene Sharp (1993) states that the downfall of dictatorships in Africa, Soviet Union, Asia and South America has minimally lifted much of the suffering of the victims of oppression, and has opened the way for the rebuilding of these societies with greater political democracy, personal liberties, and social justice.
The most important thing to remember is that of necessity, and of deliberate choice, the focus of the struggle for freedom in Zimbabwe should be to address the major problem of how to prevent the rise of a new dictatorship. This requires concrete an effective constitutional guarantees defining the terms and conduct of the country’s next leaders.
What Next?
Many including Kenneth Kaunda, Desmond Tutu, Thabo Mbeki, Simba Makoni and Kofi Annan amongst other great thinkers have raised the idea of a government of national unity through negotiations between the two major parties. In reality, this is where the focus of attention should be directed. Given the nature and level of violence in the country today, a free and fair vote cannot be achieved. Mugabe should be persuaded or pressured to accept this reality and move the country forward. Mugabe’s reputation will be in serious tatters if he goes ahead with this election and either losses or wins in much disputed circumstances.
The Kenyan style of political settlement should be ideal for Zimbabwe. However, the issue of power distribution should be resolved by creating a Prime Minister’s post and split the power between the Prime Minister and President with parliament providing the requisite checks and balances for a period of one year. The transitional government can then draw up a new constitution and hold new elections in due course and by then, Mugabe will have retired. If the above plan is not acceptable then a neutral person, preferably a retired judge or respected clergyman, can be appointed to head a transitional authority for twelve months.
In essence, negotiations, of course, may not be an option at all due to a variety of factors. For instance, firmly entrenched members of Zanu PF who feel secure in their positions may refuse to negotiate with the opposition MDC for fear of losing their power, wealth and status. The problem remains that if negotiations fail, what other option exist which has not been tried before?
Ultimately, March 29 will forever be remembered, as the defining moment for politics in Zimbabwe should the run-off election proceed as planned. Once again, the opposition MDC should now be thinking of how to either govern as a democratic movement or consider power sharing with a belligerent Zanu PF party as a junior partner.
The truth is Zimbabwe will never be the same again irrespective of what happens on June 27. The road to the return of people power has only begun but a word of caution; Mugabe and Zanu PF are not quite finished yet although the writing is already on the wall for them. Their dignified exit from power is all the people of Zimbabwe want.
Crisford Chogugudza
is a political commentator based in London. E-mail him: crisford02@yahoo.co.uk
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