MDC must play tough with foxy Mugabe

MDC must play tough with foxy Mugabe

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By Methuseli Moyo

"President romps to victory," "…sworn in as Head of State", "President off to AU summit in Egypt."

These were the headlines on the front page of the June 30 edition of the Chronicle, a government-controlled daily in the second city of Bulawayo. The "president" referred to Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe, who the previous day was declared "winner" of what has become known as the "one-candidate presidential election" run-off after challenger Morgan Tsvangirai of the MDC withdrew days before the June 27 poll, citing murder, torture, rape and intimidation of his supporters by pro-Mugabe militants.

Nonetheless, the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission declared Mugabe "winner", while at the same time Chief Justice Godfrey Chidyausiku and the rest of other bureaucrats were all systems go at State House to swear-in Mugabe in a matter of minutes.

We had a "one-candidate" poll on June 27, and two days later we set a new record – a no-foreign-dignitaries head of state swearing in ceremony. I presume Mugabe did not want to expose himself to more controversy after some of the invited dignitaries refused to attend. So it was safe to hurry things up and use that as an excuse for not inviting anyone from outside.

Mugabe is sure to have set a new record of the shortest time between a head of state's swearing-in and leaving the country. He dashed to the airport and off to Egypt for the AU summit soon after the ceremony.

The above scenario points to a nation and a president who are leaving in extra ordinary circumstances. The story of Zimbabwe's run-off is too bizarre to believe. Mugabe defied world opinion, including his colleagues in SADC, to postpone the poll until measures to stop violence and voter intimidation were in place. He candidly told them to go and hang.

The alleged turnout in the poll, a good 2 514 750, or 42% of the registered voters, is too good to be true, considering that almost everybody in Zimbabwe was aware that Tsvangirai had withdrawn from the poll, hence no need to go and vote as Mugabe was bound to be declared winner. The question is: why would all these people waste their time going to vote in an election where one candidate is not challenged? Did so may people vote or someone cooked up figures? Whichever way you look at it, the turnout was strange and needs to be explained.

"I hope Sithembiso Nyoni will be part of the unity government and "abuse state resources" and have the dam repaired. If she fails, I will do all in my power to be the next MP for Nkayi North"

METHUSELI MOYO

I for one believe the ZEC's tally. Zanu PF takes the turnout as "massive support" for Mugabe. I beg to differ. The turnout confirms the MDC's allegations that Zanu PF's military style campaign methods adopted after the "disastrous" March 29 elections terrified villagers. From the figures provided by ZEC, it means that everybody who was registered in Mashonaland, Masvingo, Manicaland and Midlands went to vote. This is strange. Where on earth have you ever heard of a 100 percent voter turnout? By contrast, the turnout was dismissal in urban centers of Harare and Bulawayo, and in the two Matabeleland provinces of North and South.

It is clear the turnout was massive where violence was massive, and lower where violence was minimal.

This proves beyond any reasonable doubt that people in Mashonaland, Masvingo, Manicaland and Midlands were "frog-marched" to go and vote, and to vote for Mugabe. They were so terrified that they could not even take chances by not voting, even when there was no need to vote.

This election has led to another new development. For the first time ever, African observer missions such as SADC, AU and the Pan-African Parliament, have spoken with one voice and condemned the elections.

Being the protagonist that he is, Mugabe flew to Egypt after his swearing-in to face his colleagues. He has warned that he would fight fire with fire, and told his supporters he is ready to face his critics.

Others have suggested talks to form a government of unity between Mugabe and Tsvangirai. Mugabe says so himself. This is Mugabe's culture. He first brutalises his opponents, defeats them and then plays the magnanimous winner and calls them to talks. He did this with Joshua Nkomo, who he persecuted and decimated his supporters for six years and later "pardoned" them when they had no option but to join him.

In case Tsvangirai and his party decide to unite with Mugabe, I feel bound to remind them of the dangers that await them in trying to achieve true and fair unity with Mugabe.

Nkomo was by far senior to Mugabe in the liberation movement, but found himself a fugitive and snake whose head had to be crushed after independence, became a refugee in Britain, and finally decided to join Mugabe to serve his people in 1987.
What did he get? He became a "senior minister in the prime minister's office" until 1990 when the constitution was changed. He had to be co-vice president with the late Simon Muzenda. What did the so-called Unity Accord entail in terms? Nothing!

Nkomo's most senior lieutenants, save for Joseph Msika Miska and John Nkomo, were either deputy ministers or some other junior officials. For example, Dumiso Dabengwa was a deputy minister of Home Affairs, when he felt he should have been given a full ministerial post. Sikhanyiso Ndlovu was a deputy minister until last year.
Ex-Zipra commanders who survived Gukurahnudi and remained in military, police, CIO and prison service remain in middle management ranks, unless if they were from Shona-speaking regions like Phillip Sibanda and Ambrose Mutinhiri.

Have you noticed how hard it is for an ex-Zapu or Zipra cadre to be accorded hero status at all, let alone national hero status? Remember the late Lieutenant General Lookout Masuku, Swazini Ndlovu and Col. Masala Sibanda? The list is endless.

I am detailing all this to prove that Mugabe is a very difficult person to negotiate with. Mugabe is the sort of person who wants you to agree that you will unite with him, and not the other way round. In this case, he would want Tsvangirai to unite with him, but let Mugabe choose who from Tsvangirai's side will be in Cabinet. That’s what he did with Nkomo. It was clear Nkomo left the entire prerogative to Mugabe to choose even from Nkomo's side who was to be promoted or made minister. There is nothing wrong with that as long as fairness is done or is seen to be. That has not been the case with Zanu PF and Mugabe.

Look at the state of Matabeleland. No deliberate effort was done to compensate the area for lack of development during the Gukurahundi era. In fact, the area has seen more underdevelopment during the years of unity than during Gukurahundi. An exception is Tsholotsho and Insiza, where Jonathan Moyo and Andrew Langa respectively, "abused state resources" and effected meaningful development in their areas. I salute them for that.

In Makthwatheni Village under Chief Sikhobokhobo where I come from, we have lost virtually all our livestock due to lack of drinking water after a dam – the only source of water – was washed away by floods three years back. No government official has set foot in the area until recently when Sithembiso Nyoni camped there to look for votes. Now that she won – thanks to divisions in the MDC – I hope she will be part of the unity government and "abuse state resources" and have the dam repaired. If she fails, I will do all in my power to be the next MP for Nkayi North. After all she comes from Silobela in Midlands, and is married to Peter Baka Nyoni of Zvishavane. This is the sort of deal you get when you unite with Zanu PF. You even get people from other provinces being imposed to be your MPs.

If not careful, Tsvangirai, Tendai Biti, Welshman Ncube and Arthur Mutambara will find themselves in but there will be no Thokozani Khuphe, no Lovemore Moyo, no Nelson Chamisa, no Elias Mudzuri, just to mention a few, in the unity government's echelons of power. It would be losers like Patrick Chinamasa and Sikhanyiso Ndlovu that occupy those positions. There could still be space for "hard-headed" Jonathan Moyo. What with Emmerson Mnangagwa, the mastermind of the Tsholotsho Declaration, pulling the strings in Zanu-PF nowadays? That would be the end of MDC, and Zimbabwe would be back to one party rule like we saw happen in 1987.
So MDC beware!

I am no prophet of doom, but I bet my last dollar that negotiating with Mugabe will never be successful, even with the most intense lobbying by President Thabo Mbeki and SADC. Remember how many trips ex-Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo made to Harare to facilitate talks between Mugabe and MDC after the 2000 general and 2002 presidential elections? Remember also how ex-president Benjamin Mkapa of Tanzania frequented Harare to facilitate dialogue, and later former Mozambican leader Joachim Chissano? The outcome was the same.

At least Mbeki got Mugabe to almost commit suicide by agreeing to relax security and media laws, and to create a semblance of a free and fair election in the run-up to the March 29 harmonised elections. Witness how Mugabe changed style for the run-off after he lost the first round. He didn't care what Mbeki or SADC said.

He is now ready to talk because he has achieved what he wanted – to secure his future and freedom, and then negotiate from the view that he is the president, and not contender like Tsvangirai.

My own experience with Mugabe tells me the US, EU and Tsvangirai strategy of "no compromise" would be the best. It is grim, painful, but fast and will deliver a free, just and democratic Zimbabwe in months. Talking to Mugabe will merely prolong the suffering of the people. Progress will only be made when he feels his succession strategy is safe or when he is cornered.

Look how the Tsholotsho Declaration team is mobilising around him. They can sense blood and want Mugabe to hold fort until they are certain they will be in when he leaves. Look how they are angry over Tsvangirai's withdrawal from the run-off. They wanted Tsvangirai to participate and lose, so that Mugabe's win would at least be legitimate in the eyes of African states, but that is no longer the case. They wanted to invite Tsvangirai to join them as a junior partner, and in the process use him to convince his international backers to remove sanctions and give economic support to Zimbabwe to stabilise their rule. For now that is not possible. George Bush and the EU don't care even if Zimbabwe's economy suffers more, as long as that will get Mugabe out of power.

On other hand, Tsvangirai can relax and wait for the mountain to fall and then rise from the ashes. The general population of Zimbabwe has lost everything they had, and would not mind even if the economy collapsed totally, so that Mugabe, his wife Grace and children, and his cronies can lose something, at least. Some of the riches Zanu PF cronies have are obscene in an impoverished nation like ours.

Only when he is at his knees can Mugabe be expected to negotiate fairly and squarely. I hope the MDC is in no hurry to talk to Mugabe or his successors.

Methuseli Moyo is a Zimbabwean journalist and former head of ZBC's Sport FM (formerly Radio 1). He was also news editor of the Sunday News

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